Topline
Fewer than 65,000 new coronavirus cases were reported in the U.S. Monday, according to Johns Hopkins University—the lowest single-day case increase since Oct. 25, as major metrics point to a sharp decline in the American Covid-19 outbreak as experts remain divided over the exact reasons for the decline and what it might mean.
Covid is on the decline in the U.S., but health officials are warning Americans not to let their … [+] guards down.
Key Facts
The U.S. added 64,938 new cases Monday, per Johns Hopkins, the fewest since 62,020 on Oct. 25.
The seven-day rolling average of new cases, viewed as a major indicator of virus spread, recently fell below 100,000 a day—the lowest infection rate since November.
Dr. Anthony Fauci said he’s “cautiously optimistic” about the current direction of the pandemic, but top experts like himself and former CDC director Dr. Tom Frieden are saying that following health guidelines—like social distancing—is reducing the spread, with Frieden saying he doesn’t believe vaccinations at this point have contributed much “at all” to the decline.
Hospitalizations have declined for 33 straight days, according to The COVID Tracking Project, which is by far the longest stretch of sustained decline during the pandemic.
Still, more than 67,000 remained hospitalized on Thursday—well above the height of both the spring and summer surges of 2020, which never reached 60,000 hospitalizations.
Deaths, which lag behind other metrics, appear to be on a slow decline.
The seven-day average for U.S. deaths is just over 2,500 per day, according to The COVID Tracking Project, but that is the lowest the death rate has been since Jan. 1.
Surprising Fact
Major indicators have shown a sharp decline in the U.S. Covid outbreak throughout much of 2021, but experts remain divided as to exactly why that is. Some are attributing it in part to the more than 53 million vaccine shots that have been given in the U.S. so far, while others are saying it might be increased social distancing or a natural change in seasonal trends.
What To Watch For
Health officials are warning Americans that this is not the time to let their guards down, especially given that a new, much more contagious Covid variant first found in the U.K. is expected to become the dominant strain in the U.S. by next month.
Key Background
The U.S. is in the declining stage of its third and by far most devastating coronavirus surge, which seemed to peak right as 2020 ended and 2021 began. The record high for daily cases was set on Jan. 2, when Johns Hopkins reported an increase of 300,282 cases. Hospitalizations set a record shortly thereafter, on Jan. 6, when 132,474 patients were hospitalized with Covid-19, according to The COVID Tracking Project. Deaths reached a single-day peak of 4,409 on Jan. 20, data from The COVID Tracking Project shows.
Tangent
Vaccine distribution has continued to accelerate, but there are concerns about a slowdown this week caused by a massive, historic winter storm affecting most of the eastern U.S., with major impacts stretching from south Texas to Maine.
Further Reading
Four reasons experts say coronavirus cases are dropping in the United States (The Washington Post)
The U.S. Is Accelerating Covid Vaccine Distribution—Here Are The Latest Initiatives (Forbes)
Millions Without Power, Vaccination Sites Disrupted As Winter Storm Sweeps U.S. (Forbes)
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